[PDF]AXA Fixed Income - Rackcdn.comhttps://aa29f389331a03bd3ef1-027a1373e6636075db5598015cb5bde6.ssl.cf3.rackc...
104 downloads
445 Views
169KB Size
27 March 2012
AXA Fixed Income
Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income Rob Bailey, Head of UK Sales
Fixed Income Team
Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer – AXA Fixed Income
2
14817
17 years’ experience
Chris was appointed Chief Investment Officer of AXA Fixed Income in September 2008 .
Chris joined AXA IM in May 2005 as a Senior Investment Strategist with responsibility for overseeing the macroeconomic analysis, currency research and input to the tactical asset allocation process in the UK.
Prior to joining AXA IM, Chris spent five years as Head of Strategy at Cazenove Fund Management. Between 1996 and 2000 Chris worked at Barclays Capital, first as Chief US Economist (in New York) and then as Chief European Economist. Before that, Chris spent seven years at Chase Manhattan Bank in London and New York as an Economist and Foreign Exchange Strategist.
Chris holds a BSc and MSc in Economics from the University of London.
AXA Fixed Income team Theo Zemek Global Head of AXA Fixed Income
Chris Iggo CIO, Global Head of Rates Jérôme Broustra Head of Rates Team, Paris
Global Rates & Aggregate
Euro Rates & Aggregate
Paris
Paris, Frankfurt
Andrea Dacquin
(1)
Inflation Paris
Xavier Galiez
Jonathan Baltora
Alexandre Menendez
Sunjay Mulot
Marion le Morhedec
Visna Nhim
Johann Ple Olivier Vietti
London
Zurich
Hassiba Ait-Braham
Peter Andres
Iva Alexandrova
Alvin Ong
Bernard Bloch
Magda Branet
Su Hwei Tee
Nick Hayes
(2)
John Madziyire David Dyer (London)
Gonul Cibik Richard Mooser
Leila Bouraoui
Jurgen Gevatter
Source: AXA IM as at 26/03/2012. (1) Also Head of Portfolio Engineering Group. (2) Also manages Credit portfolios. *Teams also managing Credit portfolios.
14817
Head of AXA Fixed Income Asia
Swiss Franc Rates & Aggregate*
Ahmed El Tobgui
3
Phil Chow
Head of Emerging Markets
Sterling Rates & Aggregate
Matthieu de Clermont Lenaig Pichavant
Damien Buchet
Emerging & Asian Markets* Paris & Singapore
Constance Hunter Deputy CIO
US Dollar Rates & Aggregate Greenwich
The global economy is looking healthier
65
Purchasing Manager Index - Manufacturing
60
Index
55 50
45 40 35 30 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 EZ Source: Bloomberg 20.03.12
4
14817
UK
US
Source : Bloomberg
Inflation is towards the higher end of the range
Consumer Price Inflation 6
US
UK
Europe
5 4
Percent Per Year
3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Mar-97
Mar-00
Mar-03
Mar-06
Mar-09 Source: Datastream
Source: DataStream 20.03.12
5
14817
No significant increase in interest rates expected
Futures Market Implied 3-Month Interest Rates 1.6 1.4
Percent
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 EUR
UK
US
0.0 Spot
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14 Source : Datastream
Source: DataStream 20.03.12
6
14817
Italy and Spain – spread levels depend on pace of fiscal reform Euro Government Bonds: Spreads vs Germany 7
Spread vs German Bunds (Percent)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 May-91
May-94
May-97
May-00 France
Source: DataStream 20.03.12
7
14817
May-03 Spain
Italy
May-06
May-09
May-12 Source: Datastream
Fixed Income Strategy
Interest rate risk
Better sentiment
Government bonds yields too low
Underweight government bonds relative to credit
“Risk-on”
Short duration strategies
Liquidity and better economic data environment
Investment grade credit
Global high yield
Inflation Some near term downward momentum in headline inflation
Longer term potential for higher inflation
Global inflation bonds
Credit risk is re-pricing; interest rate risk remains under-priced
8
14817
Impact of a rise in Bank of England (BoE) rates
Historically, the Corporate 1 - 5 Years segment outperformed other segments in periods of rising interest rates: Slow rise in interest rates (31/07/06 – 31/07/07)
Sharp rise in interest rates (31/08/99 – 29/02/00) 6.5%
6.0%
BOE
BOE
6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5%
Cumulative Performance
2.46%
1.33%
1.31%
Corporate 1-5 Years Cumulative Performance
2.86%
14817
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Corporate Sterling Gilts All Maturities Broad Market All Maturities -0.08%
Source: AXA IM / Bloomberg / BoA Merrill Lynch as at 31/12/2011. BoA Merrill Lynch Sterling Indices: Corporate 1 - 5 Years (UCOV), Corporate All Maturities (UC00), Sterling Broad Market (UK00), and Gilts All Maturities (G0L0).
9
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Broad Market & Government
Credit
Corporate Sterling Gilts All Maturities Broad Market All Maturities 1.31%
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Feb-00
Jan-00
4.0%
Broad Market & Government
Credit Corporate 1-5 Years
Dec-99
Nov-99
Oct-99
Sep-99
Aug-99
4.5%
0.03%
0.23%
Inflation – a major risk to long duration, low yielding assets Inflation-Linked vs Bonds and Equities 300 Barclays Global Inflation MSCI Global Equity
250
JPM Global Bond Total Return Index (Sep 98 - 100)
Large government deficits + Central bank balance sheet expansion + Rising emerging market domestic demand = Medium-term inflation risks
200
150
100
50 Nov-98
Nov-00
Nov-02
Nov-04
Nov-06
Nov-08
Nov-10
Source: Datastream Source: DataStream 20.03.12
10
14817
AXA Short Duration pooled product range
Short Duration credit is a long-standing expertise within AXA Fixed Income
Over £10bn globally under management, across four existing short duration strategies
Investment Grade
High Yield
Sterling Short Duration Credit
Euro Short Duration Credit
£88m under management
€870m under management
Flagship fund launched in 2010
Flagship fund launched in 2009
US Short Duration High Yield
Europe Short Duration High Yield
$14bn under management
€43m under management
Strategy developed in 2001
Flagship fund launched August 2011
We have extensive experience in managing short duration strategies Source: AXA IM as at 29/02/2012.
11
14817
AXA Inflation-linked pooled funds
A long-standing expertise within AXA Fixed Income (more than 25 years)
Over €17.3bn* global inflation-linked assets under management in London and Paris Global
AXA WF Global Inflation Bonds
Advantages:
Worldwide exposure, including those perceived as having the greatest potential for rising inflation (e.g. the US, UK, Emerging markets) Active country allocation within Eurozone
Regional Advantages:
Region-specific exposure enabling investors to match liabilities in their local currency
Diversification outside of the regional investment zone (up to 10% of the Eurozone fund and 20% of the Sterling fund)
Source: AXA IM as at 29.02.12. *As at 31/10/2011
12
14817
£1.53bn under management Launched in 2005 Portfolio manager: Marion Le Morhedec
AXA Sterling Index-Linked Fund
AXA WF Euro Inflation Bonds
£88m under management
£187m under management
Launched in 2004
Launched 2005
Portfolio manager: David Dyer
Portfolio manager: Marion Le Morhedec
We have extensive experience in managing inflation-linked strategies
Important notice This communication is intended for professional advisers only and must not be relied upon or distributed to retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly. Issued by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited registered in England No 01431068. The registered office address is 7 Newgate Street, London EC1A 7NX. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and a Member of IMA. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or buy any units in the Fund. Information relating to investments is based on research and analysis undertaken or procured by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited for its own purposes and may have been made available to other members of the AXA Group of Companies which, in turn, may have acted on it. Whilst every care is taken over these comments, no responsibility is accepted for errors and omissions that may be contained therein. It is therefore not to be taken as a recommendation to enter into any investment transactions.
13
13817